AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are mostly 1 1/2 cents higher in the nearby contracts at midday. Total old crop export commitments are 13.41% above last year, at 56.47 MMT. With just 3 weeks left in the marketing year, commitments for corn are 100% of the USDA projection, lagging the average of 104% and last year’s 107%. Thus, there is some risk of missing the estimate. The bounce this morning appears to be mostly tied to a weaker dollar and some profit taking by early week sellers. On Friday, China sold 494,714 MT of corn from 2013 and 2014, which was 40.25% of the more that 1.229 MMT offered. The Buenos Aires Grain exchange estimates the Argentine corn harvest at 85.4% complete.

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.52, up 1 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.65 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.77 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents

May 18 Corn is at $3.83 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 4 to 7 1/2 cents in the green in most front months. Sep soy meal is up 80 cents/ton, with nearby bean oil 48 points higher. Soybean export commitments are 15.8% larger than last year for this week. They are 105% of the USDA full year export estimate, vs. 104% last year and the average of 103%. Next week’s export sales report should include private export sales announcements since last Friday of at least 489,000 MT of new crop and 60,000 MT in old crop soybeans. These have been announced under the daily reporting system. China was the purchaser of 417,000 MT of that total.

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.37 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.38, up 5 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.45 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.53 1/2, up 4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybean Meal is at $296.90, up $0.80

Sep 17 Soybean Oil is at $33.69, up $0.48

Wheat

Wheat futures are mostly steady to fractionally mixed at midday. KC and MPLS are fractionally lower in the nearby contracts, with CBT 2 cents higher in the front month. Compared to the USDA export projection, they are 42% complete, even with last year and slightly behind the average pace of 44%. BAGE lowered their Argentine wheat planting estimate to 13.22 million acres. Australia’s production is estimated at 22 MMT according to a private analyst, vs. the USDA’s 23.5 MMT. Saudi Arabia’s tender for 480,000 MT of wheat will close today.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.16, up 2 cents,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.14 1/4, unch ,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.70, down 1/4 cent

Cattle

Live cattle futures are currently 15 to 35 cents higher in the nearby contracts on Friday. Feeder cattle futures are seeing gains of 70 cents to $1.175. The CME feeder cattle index was 5 cents lower than the previous day at $144.44 for August 16. Wholesale beef prices were lower again in the Friday morning report, with choice down 57 cents at $195.06 and select boxes $1.70 lower at $192.50. The CH/SE spread is now at $2.56. Cash sales of $110-$110.50 were reported across most regions yesterday, down $5 from last week. Week to date FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 467,000 head through Thursday, 2,000 fewer than last week but 14,000 larger than the same week last year. Thursday’s export sales report showed Japan, again the lead buyer at 3,000 MT, as their tariff on frozen beef was increased to 50% on Aug 1. We are assuming that these latest purchases are either fresh beef (not affected by the tariff increase) or to price elastic markets. Total beef export commitments are 5.7% larger than last year.

Aug 17 Cattle are at $107.450, up $0.325,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $106.575, up $0.350,

Dec 17 Cattle are at $108.425, up $0.150,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $141.650, up $1.175

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $141.500, up $0.775

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $141.175, up $0.700

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are trading 77.5 cents to $1.15 in the red. The CME Lean Hog Index for 8/16 was 33 cents lower than the previous day at $83.70. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.06 higher in the Friday morning report, with a weighted average of $93.03. The national base hog carcass was down $2.25 at $73.15 in the AM report. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,785,000 week to date through Thursday, 72,000 head larger than the previous week and up 57,000 from the same week in 2016.Pork export commitments YTD (at least those tracked in the weekly FAS report) are 8.8% above last year at 810,758 MT. Argentina agreed to open their boarders to US pork for the first time in 25 years, with initial estimates a cautious $10 million per year.

Oct 17 Hogs are at $65.775, down $1.150,

Dec 17 Hogs are at $60.850, down $0.950

Feb 18 Hogs are at $65.525, down $0.775

Cotton

Cotton futures are mostly 23 to 44 points higher, as nearby Oct is showing no trade. The US dollar is slightly supportive, as it is down 160 points. Upland cotton export commitments are 66.3% larger than last year at this time, @ 6.13 million RB. The USDA cotton AWP for the coming week will be 59.70, down from 62.46 cents/lb in the week just ended. The Cotlook A index for August 17 was down 30 points at 77.40 cents/lb. China sold 23,400 MT of the 29,476 MT of cotton offered at Thursday’s auction of state reserves.

Dec 17 Cotton is at 67.35, up 44 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 66.99, up 23 points

May 18 Cotton is at 67.620, up 29 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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