AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures closed the Friday session with most contracts as much as a penny lower. A private export sale of 134,503 MT of corn was sold to Costa Rica as announced by the USDA through their daily export reporting system. The Friday Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds adding to their net short position by 36,673 contracts in the week ending December 12. They were net short 197,192 contracts of futures and options on that date. Informa analysts updated their projection for the 17/18 US corn yield at 176.6 bpa, compared to the USDA estimate of 175.4 bpa. They also lowered their 2018 corn planted acreage estimate to 89.675 million acres, down 1.74 million acres from their November number.

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.47 1/2, down 1 cent,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.55 3/4, down 1 cent,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.64 1/4, down 3/4 cent

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.71 1/4, down 3/4 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures settled the day with fractional losses in the front months. January soy meal was down $1/ton, as nearby Jan bean oil 2 points lower. The USDA reported separate export sales of 126,000 MT of soybeans to Unknown Destinations, with 257,000 MT to China. Both sales were for 17/18 delivery. This morning’s NOPA report indicated its members had crushed 163.546 mbu of soybeans during November. That was ahead of most expectations and 1.74% larger than November 2016. Soybean oil stocks were reported at 1.326 billion pounds at the end of November, larger than most estimates and 8.35% above the end of October. US soybean planted acreage for 2018 is expected to hit 91.387 million acres, according to Informa analysts. That is 1.76 million acres larger than their previous estimate.

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.67 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.78, down 3/4 cent,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $9.89, down 3/4 cent,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.01, down 1/4 cent,

Jan 18 Soybean Meal closed at $320.60, down $1.00,

Jan 18 Soybean Oil closed at $33.16, down $0.02

Wheat

Wheat futures were mixed on Friday. MPLS was the strongest, with gains of 2 1/4 to 3 3/4 cents. Most CBT contracts were fractionally on either side of UNCH, with KC contracts steady to 2 cents lower. Private exporters reported a sale of 130,000 MT of SRW wheat to Unknown Destinations for 17/18 delivery, according to the USDA FAS reporting system. Informa updated their 2018 winter wheat acreage number to 31.093 million acres. 0.830 million acres lower than their previous estimate. The CFTC report on Friday afternoon showed the big spec funds adding back to their net short Chicago SRW positions by 38,871 contracts in the week ending 12/12. They were net short 157,652 contracts at that time.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.18 1/4, unch,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.17 1/2, down 3/4 cent,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.20, up 3 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures finished the Friday session $1.075 to $2.625 higher in the front months on higher cash cattle trade. Feeder cattle futures were up 80 cents to $1.50 in most contracts. The CME feeder cattle index on December 14 was up 9 cents to $154.40. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday afternoon. Choice was up 83 cents at $201.87, with select 44 cents lower at $183.25. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter is at 630,000 head through Saturday, 6,000 head fewer than the previous week but 24,000 head larger than the same week last year. Cash trade picked up late Friday afternoon with sales of $119-120.50, up $2 from the previous week. Spec traders were shown as reducing their CFTC net long cattle position by 17,262 contracts during the week ending Tuesday. That net position was at 99,748 contracts as of 12/12.

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $118.900, up $2.625,

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $121.025, up $1.875,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $122.150, up $1.850,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.750, up $1.500

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.550, up $1.200

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.925, up $1.225

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures ended the day with 15 to 90 cent gains. The CME Lean Hog Index for 12/13 was down 22 cents to $64.64. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 26 cents at $77.57 in the Friday afternoon report. The butt was lower, with the rib down $5.66. The national base hog price was 13 cents lower at $56.47 this afternoon. The USDA weekly FI hog slaughter is estimated at 2,578,000 head WTD through Saturday. That is up 41,000 head from the previous week and 76,000 head more than the same week last year. The spec funds reduced their lean hog net long by 7,007 contracts in the week ending December 12, leaving it at 61,327 contracts.

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $68.525, up $0.900,

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $72.800, up $0.550

May 18 Hogs closed at $77.850, up $0.250

Cotton

Cotton futures saw gains of 24 to 77 points on Friday, as March was up 2.98% on the week. The Commitment of Traders report showed the spec traders adding another 7,101 contracts their net position as of Tuesday. That net long position stood at 89,510 contracts as of December 12. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 65.95 cents/lb, 92 points higher than the previous week. The Cotlook A index was 125 points higher from the day prior on December 14 to 84.70 cents/lb. Online cash sales on the Seam jumped to 32,373 bales, with prices averaging 70.24 cents/lb, up 130 points from the previous day.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 75.920, up 59 points,

May 18 Cotton closed at 76.320, up 69 points

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 73.850, up 28 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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